Evaluative Thinking
A method for evaluating complex situations using four textures instead of simple good/bad judgments.
Usually we restrict our evaluative thinking to two categories: good or bad, right or wrong, true or false. In complex situations this is like trying to forecast the weather using only “sun” or “rain.” We need a better range of evaluation categories just as we need a more complex weather forecast.
Causal texture method requires that we think about any situation not in two but in four categories.
Any situation can be evaluated as:
Positive
Ambiguous
Indeterminate
Negative
Most complex situations have a mix of causal textures. Texture is woven together and so, through feedback and interconnectedness, these different aspects weave together in any situation.
By covering all textures we are less likely to jump to hasty conclusions, take a one-sided view, miss creative opportunities, or get fooled by a biased report.
Try this exercise on situations that need a judgement before you make your final judgement.
EXERCISE
Briefly, what is the situation you are evaluating?
What will be the basis of your confidence?
What features of the situation seem positive?
What features of the situation seem negative?
What aspects of the situation seem to be a mix or confusion of positive and negative — ambiguous?
What important aspects of the situation seem indeterminate, blurred, or possibly offering new possibilities?
What now is your confidence in your judgement?
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